UNC-Chapel Hill Coronavirus Research // Carolina Digital Repository

Works (1024)

11. Mechanistic insights into ligand dissociation from the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein

Title Tesim:: Mechanistic insights into ligand dissociation from the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein
Creator:: Miao Y, Pawnikar S, Huang Y.-M.M, Hasse T, Mantei E, Wang J, and Shahoei R
Date of publication:: 2024
Abstract Tesim:: The COVID-19 pandemic, driven by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has spurred an urgent need for effective therapeutic interventions. The spike glycoprotein of the SARS-CoV-2 is crucial for infiltrating host cells, rendering it a key candidate for drug development. By interacting with the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor, the spike initiates the infection of SARS-CoV-2. Linoleate is known to bind the spike glycoprotein, subsequently reducing its interaction with ACE2. However, the detailed mechanisms underlying the protein-ligand interaction remain unclear. In this study, we characterized the pathways of ligand dissociation and the conformational changes associated with the spike glycoprotein by using ligand Gaussian accelerated molecular dynamics (LiGaMD). Our simulations resulted in eight complete ligand dissociation trajectories, unveiling two distinct ligand unbinding pathways. The preference between these two pathways depends on the gate distance between two α-helices in the receptor binding domain (RBD) and the position of the N-linked glycan at N343. Our study also highlights the essential contributions of K417, N121 glycan, and N165 glycan in ligand unbinding, which are equally crucial in enhancing spike-ACE2 binding. We suggest that the presence of the ligand influences the motions of these residues and glycans, consequently reducing accessibility for spike-ACE2 binding. These findings enhance our understanding of ligand dissociation from the spike glycoprotein and offer significant implications for drug design strategies in the battle against COVID-19.
Resource type:: Article
Affiliation Label Tesim:: Department of Pharmacology
DOI:: https://doi.org/10.17615/2rd1-w440
Edition:: Postprint
Identifier:: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011955
ISSN:: 1553-734X
Journal Issue:: 3
Journal Title:: PLoS Computational Biology
Journal Volume:: 20
Keyword:: Ligand dissociation, Dissociation, Molecular dynamics, Drug development, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, dissociation, receptor binding, molecular dynamics, Ligands, Glycans, Diseases, simulation, protein structure, Polysaccharides, Protein-ligand interactions, amino acid sequence, coronavirus spike glycoprotein, ligand dissociation, algorithm, Glycoproteins, protein domain, nonhuman, Therapeutic intervention, Article, energy, Gaussians, binding affinity, coronavirus disease 2019, Mechanistics, Host cells, Coronavirus, Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, and Conformational change
Language Label:: English
License Label:: Attribution 4.0 International
ORCID:
Other Affiliation:: , Department of Molecular Biosciences, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, United States, and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, United States
Person:: Miao Y, Pawnikar S, Huang Y.-M.M, Hasse T, Mantei E, Wang J, and Shahoei R
Publisher:: Public Library of Science
Source:: ebe3ca4c-6e8c-4056-8ade-fa560b5a516e

12. Inhalation of ACE2-expressing lung exosomes provides prophylactic protection against SARS-CoV-2

Title Tesim:: Inhalation of ACE2-expressing lung exosomes provides prophylactic protection against SARS-CoV-2
Creator:: Hu Y, Wang Z, Li J, Popowski K.D, Liu S, Hu S, Wang X, Mei X, Dinh P.-U.C, Zhu D, and Cheng K
Date of publication:: 2024
Abstract Tesim:: Continued emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern that are capable of escaping vaccine-induced immunity highlights the urgency of developing new COVID-19 therapeutics. An essential mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 infection begins with the viral spike protein binding to the human ACE2. Consequently, inhibiting this interaction becomes a highly promising therapeutic strategy against COVID-19. Herein, we demonstrate that ACE2-expressing human lung spheroid cells (LSC)-derived exosomes (LSC-Exo) could function as a prophylactic agent to bind and neutralize SARS-CoV-2, protecting the host against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Inhalation of LSC-Exo facilitates its deposition and biodistribution throughout the whole lung in a female mouse model. We show that LSC-Exo blocks the interaction of SARS-CoV-2 with host cells in vitro and in vivo by neutralizing the virus. LSC-Exo treatment protects hamsters from SARS-CoV-2-induced disease and reduced viral loads. Furthermore, LSC-Exo intercepts the entry of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variant pseudoviruses in female mice and shows comparable or equal potency against the wild-type strain, demonstrating that LSC-Exo may act as a broad-spectrum protectant against existing and emerging virus variants.
Resource type:: Article
Affiliation Label Tesim:: Joint Department of Biomedical Engineering
DOI:: https://doi.org/10.17615/307w-1n67
Edition:: Publisher
Identifier:: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45628-x
ISSN:: 2041-1723
Journal Issue:: 1
Journal Title:: Nature Communications
Journal Volume:: 15
Keyword:: virus, SARS-CoV-2, Female, human, tissue distribution, COVID-19, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, angiotensin converting enzyme 2, mouse, exosome, Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2, severe acute respiratory syndrome, Humans, Mice, animal, spike protein, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-2 variants, Cricetinae, coronavirus spike glycoprotein, female, Animals, emergence, protein, immunity, Exosomes, disease treatment, gene expression, viral disease, neutralizing antibody, Tissue Distribution, hamster, Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus, Antibodies, Neutralizing, and coronavirus disease 2019
Language Label:: English
License Label:: Attribution 4.0 International
Other Affiliation:: Department of Biomedical Engineering, Columbia University, NY, United States, , Xsome Biotech Inc, and School of Pharmacy, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
Person:: Hu Y, Wang Z, Li J, Popowski K.D, Liu S, Hu S, Wang X, Mei X, Dinh P.-U.C, Zhu D, and Cheng K
Publisher:: Nature Research
Rights Statement Label:: In Copyright
Source:: 97382028-5cc1-4af1-8d92-3ed7b048fe4d

13. Healthcare Provider N95 Respirator Contamination Worn Behind Face Shields With SARS-CoV-2 During Routine Clinical Care of Patients With COVID-19

Title Tesim:: Healthcare Provider N95 Respirator Contamination Worn Behind Face Shields With SARS-CoV-2 During Routine Clinical Care of Patients With COVID-19
Creator:: Smith B, Warren B.G, Anderson D.J, Graves A.M, Sickbert-Bennett E.E, Lewis S.S, Weber D.J, and Barrett A
Date of publication:: 2024
Abstract Tesim:: N95 respirator contamination with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during clinical care of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 is poorly understood. We performed a prospective observational study on healthcare provider's (HCP's) N95 respirators' and face shields' SARS-CoV-2 contamination during aerosol-generating procedures on SARS-CoV-2- positive patients housed in a COVID-19-specific unit. Medical masks worn on top of HCP's N95 respirators, and under face shields, during study aerosol-generating procedures were used as surrogates to detect contamination to avoid waste. Thirtythree HCPs were studied, and a total of 33 mask and 27 face shields were sampled. Masks were cut into 9 pieces and face shields were sampled twice, front and back, to determine locality of contamination; however, no positive samples were identified using standard polymerase chain reaction techniques with a CT value up to 40. All 9 mask piece samples were then pooled, as were face shield samples, using centrifugal concentration with polyethersulfone membranes. Once pooled and concentrated, overall, 9 (15%) samples were positive via real-time polymerase chain reaction: 5 from masks (15.2%) and 4 from face shields (14.8%).
Resource type:: Article
Affiliation Label Tesim:: Division of Infectious Diseases
DOI:: https://doi.org/10.17615/qd34-4g54
Edition:: Publisher
Identifier:: https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofae040
ISSN:: 2328-8957
Journal Issue:: 3
Journal Title:: Open Forum Infectious Diseases
Journal Volume:: 11
Keyword:: healthcare epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2, mask contamination, and hospital environment
Language Label:: English
License Label:: Attribution 4.0 International
Other Affiliation:: Division of Infectious Diseases, Duke Center for Antimicrobial Stewardship and Infection Prevention, Durham, NC, United States and
Person:: Smith B, Warren B.G, Anderson D.J, Graves A.M, Sickbert-Bennett E.E, Lewis S.S, Weber D.J, and Barrett A
Publisher:: Oxford University Press
Rights Statement Label:: In Copyright
Source:: 4017672d-8d2d-4f26-bf5d-655941ae63bd

14. Genetic loci regulate Sarbecovirus pathogenesis: A comparison across mice and humans

Title Tesim:: Genetic loci regulate Sarbecovirus pathogenesis: A comparison across mice and humans
Creator:: Ferris M.T, Leist S.R, VanBlargan L.A, Miller D.R, Mooney M.A, Hock P, Agnihothram S, de Villena F.P.M, Heise M.T, Chamberlin S, Graham R.L, McWeeney S.K, Linnertz C.L, Baric R.S., Shaw G.D, Schäfer A, Hampton B.K, Gralinski L.E, Jeng S, Menachery V.D, Scobey D.T, Jensen K.L, Bell T.A, Diamond M.S, and Thackray L.B
Date of publication:: 2024
Abstract Tesim:: Coronavirus (CoV) cause considerable morbidity and mortality in humans and other mammals, as evidenced by the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory CoV (SARS-CoV) in 2003, Middle East Respiratory CoV (MERS-CoV) in 2012, and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019. Although poorly characterized, natural genetic variation in human and other mammals modulate virus pathogenesis, as reflected by the spectrum of clinical outcomes ranging from asymptomatic infections to lethal disease. Using multiple human epidemic and zoonotic Sarbecoviruses, coupled with murine Collaborative Cross genetic reference populations, we identify several dozen quantitative trait loci that regulate SARS-like group-2B CoV pathogenesis and replication. Under a Chr4 QTL, we deleted a candidate interferon stimulated gene, Trim14 which resulted in enhanced SARS-CoV titers and clinical disease, suggesting an antiviral role during infection. Importantly, about 60 % of the murine QTL encode susceptibility genes identified as priority candidates from human genome-wide association studies (GWAS) studies after SARS-CoV-2 infection, suggesting that similar selective forces have targeted analogous genes and pathways to regulate Sarbecovirus disease across diverse mammalian hosts. These studies provide an experimental platform in rodents to investigate the molecular-genetic mechanisms by which potential cross mammalian susceptibility loci and genes regulate type-specific and cross-SARS-like group 2B CoV replication, immunity, and pathogenesis in rodent models. Our study also provides a paradigm for identifying susceptibility loci for other highly heterogeneous and virulent viruses that sporadically emerge from zoonotic reservoirs to plague human and animal populations.
Resource type:: Article
Affiliation Label Tesim:: Department of Genetics and Department of Epidemiology
DOI:: https://doi.org/10.17615/qtsh-mk73
Edition:: Publisher
Identifier:: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.virusres.2024.199357
ISSN:: 0168-1702
Journal Title:: Virus Research
Journal Volume:: 344
Keyword:: SARS-CoV-2, Zoonotic CoV, Pathogenesis, SARS-CoV, and Host susceptibility loci
Language Label:: English
License Label:: Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
Other Affiliation:: , Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, United States, Knight Cancer Institute, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, United States, Division of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, United States, and Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, United States
Person:: Ferris M.T, Leist S.R, VanBlargan L.A, Miller D.R, Mooney M.A, Hock P, Agnihothram S, de Villena F.P.M, Heise M.T, Chamberlin S, Graham R.L, McWeeney S.K, Linnertz C.L, Baric R.S., Shaw G.D, Schäfer A, Hampton B.K, Gralinski L.E, Jeng S, Menachery V.D, Scobey D.T, Jensen K.L, Bell T.A, Diamond M.S, and Thackray L.B
Publisher:: Elsevier B.V.
Rights Statement Label:: In Copyright
Source:: dd181ae6-2767-4854-b692-f5536f413510

15. flepiMoP: The evolution of a flexible infectious disease modeling pipeline during the COVID-19 pandemic

Title Tesim:: flepiMoP: The evolution of a flexible infectious disease modeling pipeline during the COVID-19 pandemic
Creator:: Lessler J, Loo S.L, Lemaitre J.C, Sato K, Jung S.-M, McKee C, Smith C, Hill A, Truelove S, Lee E.C, Kaminsky J, and Carcelen E
Date of publication:: 2024
Abstract Tesim:: The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented demand for projections of disease burden and healthcare utilization under scenarios ranging from unmitigated spread to strict social distancing policies. In response, members of the Johns Hopkins Infectious Disease Dynamics Group developed flepiMoP (formerly called the COVID Scenario Modeling Pipeline), a comprehensive open-source software pipeline designed for creating and simulating compartmental models of infectious disease transmission and inferring parameters through these models. The framework has been used extensively to produce short-term forecasts and longer-term scenario projections of COVID-19 at the state and county level in the US, for COVID-19 in other countries at various geographic scales, and more recently for seasonal influenza. In this paper, we highlight how the flepiMoP has evolved throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to address changing epidemiological dynamics, new interventions, and shifts in policy-relevant model outputs. As the framework has reached a mature state, we provide a detailed overview of flepiMoP's key features and remaining limitations, thereby distributing flepiMoP and its documentation as a flexible and powerful tool for researchers and public health professionals to rapidly build and deploy large-scale complex infectious disease models for any pathogen and demographic setup.
Resource type:: Article
Affiliation Label Tesim:: Department of Epidemiology and Carolina Population Center
DOI:: https://doi.org/10.17615/y9dz-kp17
Edition:: Publisher
Identifier:: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100753
ISSN:: 1755-4365
Journal Title:: Epidemics
Journal Volume:: 47
Keyword:: Forecasting, Influenza, COVID-19, Compartmental model, Pipeline, Respiratory syncytial virus, Scenario Planning, and Open-source Software
Language Label:: English
License Label:: Attribution 4.0 International
Other Affiliation:: , Johns Hopkins University International Vaccine Access Center, Department of International Health, Baltimore, MD, United States, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States, and Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
Person:: Lessler J, Loo S.L, Lemaitre J.C, Sato K, Jung S.-M, McKee C, Smith C, Hill A, Truelove S, Lee E.C, Kaminsky J, and Carcelen E
Publisher:: Elsevier B.V.
Rights Statement Label:: In Copyright
Source:: 38d96657-8fc7-4737-8046-19867eeee5e8

16. Fine-Scale (10 m) Dynamics of Smallholder Farming through COVID-19 in Eastern Thailand

Title Tesim:: Fine-Scale (10 m) Dynamics of Smallholder Farming through COVID-19 in Eastern Thailand
Creator:: Todd, Amelia R., Hammelman, Colleen, Chen, Gang, Robinson, Harris M., Hicks, William W., Bell, Grace M., Kinsey, John E., Anantsuksomsri, Sutee, Tontisirin, Nij, and Calloway, Miles G.
Date of publication:: 2024
Abstract Tesim:: This study aims to understand the spatiotemporal changes in patterns of tropical crop cultivation in Eastern Thailand, encompassing the periods before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Our approach involved assessing the efficacy of high-resolution (10 m) Sentinel-2 dense image time series for mapping smallholder farmlands. We integrated harmonic regression and random forest to map a diverse array of tropical crop types between summer 2017 and summer 2023, including durian, rice, rubber, eucalyptus, oil palm, pineapple, sugarcane, cassava, mangosteen, coconut, and other crops. The results revealed an overall mapping accuracy of 85.6%, with several crop types exceeding 90%. High-resolution imagery demonstrated particular effectiveness in situations involving intercropping, a popular practice of simultaneously growing two or more plant species in the same patch of land. However, we observed overestimation in the majority of the studied cash crops, primarily those located in young plantations with open tree canopies and grass-covered ground surfaces. The adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were observed in specific labor-intensive crops, including rubber and durian, but were limited to the short term. No discernible impact was noted across the entirety of the study timeframe. In comparison, financial gain and climate change appeared to be more pivotal in influencing farmers’ decisions regarding crop cultivation. Traditionally dominant crops such as rice and oil palm have witnessed a discernible decline in cultivation, reflecting a decade-long trend of price drops preceding the pandemic. Conversely, Thai durian has seen a significant upswing even over the pandemic, which ironically served as a catalyst prompting Thai farmers to adopt e-commerce to meet the surging demand, particularly from China.
Resource type:: Article
Affiliation Label Tesim:: Environment, Ecology, and Energy Program - Environmental Science
DOI:: https://doi.org/10.17615/jjbt-e352
Edition:: Publisher
Identifier:: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16061035
ISSN:: 2072-4292
Journal Issue:: 6
Journal Title:: Remote Sensing
Journal Volume:: 16
Keyword:: Eastern Thailand, Sentinel-2, high-resolution image time series, COVID-19 pandemic, crop cultivation, and smallholder farming
Language Label:: English
License Label:: Attribution 4.0 International
ORCID:
Other Affiliation:: University of North Carolina at Charlotte, , Chulalongkorn University, and Thammasat University
Page Start:: 1035
Person:: Todd, Amelia R., Hammelman, Colleen, Chen, Gang, Robinson, Harris M., Hicks, William W., Bell, Grace M., Kinsey, John E., Anantsuksomsri, Sutee, Tontisirin, Nij, and Calloway, Miles G.
Publisher:: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Source:: 6b371d22-651c-457f-bb31-c030075f0eb8

17. A qualitative assessment of barriers and facilitators of telemedicine volunteerism during the COVID-19 pandemic in India

Title Tesim:: A qualitative assessment of barriers and facilitators of telemedicine volunteerism during the COVID-19 pandemic in India
Creator:: Westgard C.M, Barnhardt S, Singh S, and D’Souza K
Date of publication:: 2024
Abstract Tesim:: Background: The COVID-19 pandemic further propelled the recent growth of telemedicine in low-resource countries, with new models of telemedicine emerging, including volunteer-based telemedicine networks. By leveraging existing infrastructure and resources to allocate health personnel more efficiently, these volunteer networks eased some of the pandemic burden placed on health systems. However, there is insufficient understanding of volunteer-based telemedicine models, especially on the human resources engagement on such networks. This study aims to understand the motivations and barriers to health practitioner engagement on a volunteer telemedicine network during COVID-19, and the mechanisms that can potentially sustain volunteer engagement to address healthcare demands beyond the pandemic. Methods: In-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with health practitioners volunteering on an Indian, multi-state telemedicine network during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were analyzed using thematic content analysis methods. Results: Most practitioners reported being motivated to volunteer by a sense of duty to serve during the pandemic. Practitioners suggested organizational-level measures to make the process more efficient and facilitate a more rewarding provider–patient interaction. These included screening calls, gathering patient information prior to consultations, and allowing for follow-up calls with patients to close the loop on consultations. Many practitioners stated that non-financial incentives are enough to maintain volunteer engagement. However, practitioners expressed mixed feelings about financial incentives. Some stated that financial incentives are needed to maintain long-term provider engagement, while others stated that financial incentives would devalue the volunteer experience. Most practitioners highlighted that telemedicine could increase access to healthcare, especially to the rural and underserved, even after the pandemic. Practitioners also expressed an interest in continuing to volunteer with the network if the need arose again. Conclusion: Our study findings suggest that practitioners are highly intrinsically motivated to volunteer during large healthcare emergencies and beyond to address the healthcare needs of the underserved. Following the recommendations presented in the study, telemedicine networks can more successfully engage and maintain volunteer practitioners. Volunteer-based telemedicine networks have the potential to bridge shortages of health personnel in resource-constrained settings both in times of crises and beyond.
Resource type:: Article
Affiliation Label Tesim:: Department of Maternal and Child Health and Department of Health Policy and Management
DOI:: https://doi.org/10.17615/npb5-dv29
Edition:: Publisher
Identifier:: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12960-024-00897-x
ISSN:: 1478-4491
Journal Issue:: 1
Journal Title:: Human Resources for Health
Journal Volume:: 22
Keyword:: Volunteerism, Telemedicine, India, Covid, Incentives, and Medical providers
Language Label:: English
License Label:: Attribution 4.0 International
Other Affiliation:: School of Human Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States, Centre for Social and Behaviour Change, Ashoka University, Rajiv Gandhi Education City, Haryana, Sonipat, India, and
Person:: Westgard C.M, Barnhardt S, Singh S, and D’Souza K
Publisher:: BioMed Central Ltd
Rights Statement Label:: In Copyright
Source:: ad7d0d91-36d8-4846-9f83-99ea65c953df

18. A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Coercive Control and COVID-19 Stress Among Black Women Experiencing Intimate Partner Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Title Tesim:: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Coercive Control and COVID-19 Stress Among Black Women Experiencing Intimate Partner Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Creator:: Sharpless L, Willie T.C, Kershaw T, and Katague M
Date of publication:: 2024
Abstract Tesim:: Objective: During times of crises, women are at elevated risk for intimate partner violence (IPV), but extant discourse fails to consider how this landscape amplifies disparities for Black women. This study examined the prevalence and associations of COVID-19 pandemic–specific coercive control and COVID-19–related stress among Black women experiencing IPV. Methods: Fifty-five Black women reporting past-year IPV participated in a prospective cohort study in 2020 and completed surveys on pandemic-specific coercive control, COVID-19–related stress, and sociodemographic characteristics. A subset of 15 participants completed semi-structured interviews in 2021. We conducted multivariable regression analyses to examine associations between coercive control and stress. We used interpretive phenomenological analysis to contextualize women’s experiences of coercive control and stress during the pandemic. Results: In the past 3 months, 76% (42 of 55) of women had a partner blame them for exposing them to COVID-19, 74% (41 of 55) had a partner minimize their pandemic concerns, and 52% (29 of 55) had a partner prevent them from getting a COVID-19 test. A higher average of pandemic-specific coercive control was associated with greater severity of COVID-19–related traumatic stress (b [SE] = 0.033 [0.009]; P =.001) and socioeconomic consequences related to COVID-19 (b [SE] = 0.019 [0.008]; P =.03). We identified 3 superordinate themes that illustrated Black women’s experiences: (1) coercive control, (2) pandemic-driven shifts in relational context, and (3) women’s structural and psychosocial stressors. Conclusions: Experiencing coercive control during the pandemic interfered with Black women’s engagement in preventive behaviors, which exacerbated distress. Intersectional public health efforts should address sociostructural and relational factors to prevent coercive control and stress among Black women experiencing IPV.
Resource type:: Article
Affiliation Label Tesim:: Department of Health Behavior
DOI:: https://doi.org/10.17615/men1-c271
Identifier:: https://doi.org/10.1177/00333549241238895
ISSN:: 0033-3549
Journal Title:: Public Health Reports
Keyword:: stress, intimate partner violence, COVID-19, and Black women
Language Label:: English
Other Affiliation:: , Department of Mental Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, United States, and San Diego State University and University of California, San Diego, CA, San Diego, United States
Person:: Sharpless L, Willie T.C, Kershaw T, and Katague M
Publisher:: SAGE Publications Ltd
Rights Statement Label:: In Copyright
Source:: f5208bc0-f020-49ef-8928-59772ff4de6c

19. Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases

Title Tesim:: Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases
Creator:: Metcalf, C.J.E and Lessler, J
Date of publication:: 2017
Abstract Tesim:: The term “pathogen emergence” encompasses everything from previously unidentified viruses entering the human population to established pathogens invading new populations and the evolution of drug resistance. Mathematical models of emergent pathogens allow forecasts of case numbers, investigation of transmission mechanisms, and evaluation of control options. Yet, there are numerous limitations and pitfalls to their use, often driven by data scarcity. Growing availability of data on pathogen genetics and human ecology, coupled with computational and methodological innovations, is amplifying the power of models to inform the public health response to emergence events. Tighter integration of infectious disease models with public health practice and development of resources at the ready has the potential to increase the timeliness and quality of responses.
Resource type:: Article
Affiliation Label Tesim:: Department of Epidemiology
DOI:: https://doi.org/10.17615/zrpn-sb55
Edition:: Postprint
Identifier:: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam8335
Journal Issue:: 6347
Journal Title:: Science
Journal Volume:: 357
Keyword:: virus infection, public health service, mathematical model, pandemic, animal, Animals, virology, theoretical model, public health, virus, virus transmission, drug resistance, priority journal, human, data assimilation, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, epidemic, pathogen, Middle East respiratory syndrome, innovation, Zika fever, Influenza A virus (H1N1), Communicable Diseases, Emerging, Models, Theoretical, Public Health Practice, forecasting, Zika virus, infectious disease, Review, nonhuman, communicable disease, Humans, disease model, numerical model, Ebola hemorrhagic fever, and Ebolavirus
Language Label:: English
ORCID:
Other Affiliation:: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
Page End:: 152
Page Start:: 149
Person:: Metcalf, C.J.E and Lessler, J
Source:: 75e34607-9415-4390-b04e-056d83d60690

20. Quantifying the Risk and Cost of Active Monitoring for Infectious Diseases

Title Tesim:: Quantifying the Risk and Cost of Active Monitoring for Infectious Diseases
Creator:: Vora, N.M, Reich, N.G, Varma, J.K, and Lessler, J
Date of publication:: 2018
Abstract Tesim:: During outbreaks of deadly emerging pathogens (e.g., Ebola, MERS-CoV) and bioterror threats (e.g., smallpox), actively monitoring potentially infected individuals aims to limit disease transmission and morbidity. Guidance issued by CDC on active monitoring was a cornerstone of its response to the West Africa Ebola outbreak. There are limited data on how to balance the costs and performance of this important public health activity. We present a framework that estimates the risks and costs of specific durations of active monitoring for pathogens of significant public health concern. We analyze data from New York City's Ebola active monitoring program over a 16-month period in 2014-2016. For monitored individuals, we identified unique durations of active monitoring that minimize expected costs for those at "low (but not zero) risk" and "some or high risk": 21 and 31 days, respectively. Extending our analysis to smallpox and MERS-CoV, we found that the optimal length of active monitoring relative to the median incubation period was reduced compared to Ebola due to less variable incubation periods. Active monitoring can save lives but is expensive. Resources can be most effectively allocated by using exposure-risk categories to modify the duration or intensity of active monitoring.
Resource type:: Article
Affiliation Label Tesim:: Department of Epidemiology
DOI:: https://doi.org/10.17615/n9gp-7a55
Edition:: Publisher
Identifier:: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-19406-x
Journal Issue:: 1
Journal Title:: Scientific Reports
Journal Volume:: 8
Keyword:: Humans, health survey, Models, Theoretical, human, communicable disease, incubation time, Infectious Disease Incubation Period, Risk, risk, Costs and Cost Analysis, Population Surveillance, epidemiological monitoring, Communicable Diseases, theoretical model, Epidemiological Monitoring, and cost
Language Label:: English
License Label:: Attribution 4.0 International
ORCID:
Other Affiliation:: New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY, University of Massachusetts-Amherst, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Amherst, MA, and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Baltimore, MD
Person:: Vora, N.M, Reich, N.G, Varma, J.K, and Lessler, J
Source:: 452b3603-3d79-47c4-ae78-68b9ee2a56cc

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