Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures Public Deposited

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Creator
  • Mei, W.
    • Affiliation: College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Marine Sciences
    • Other Affiliation: University of California, San Diego
  • Xie, S.-P.
    • Other Affiliation: University of California, San Diego
  • Primeau, F.
    • Other Affiliation: niversity of California Irvine
  • McWilliams, J.C.
    • Other Affiliation: University of California, Los Angeles
  • Pasquero, C.
    • Other Affiliation: University of Milano-Bicocca
Abstract
  • Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.
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  • Article
Rights statement
  • In Copyright
License
  • Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
Journal title
  • Science Advances
Journal volume
  • 1
Journal issue
  • 4
Language
  • English
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  • Publisher
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  • 2375-2548
Publisher
  • American Association for the Advancement of Science
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