Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases
Public Deposited- Creator
-
Metcalf, C.J.E
- Other Affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
-
Lessler, J
- Affiliation: Gillings School of Global Public Health, Department of Epidemiology
- Other Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
- Abstract
- The term “pathogen emergence” encompasses everything from previously unidentified viruses entering the human population to established pathogens invading new populations and the evolution of drug resistance. Mathematical models of emergent pathogens allow forecasts of case numbers, investigation of transmission mechanisms, and evaluation of control options. Yet, there are numerous limitations and pitfalls to their use, often driven by data scarcity. Growing availability of data on pathogen genetics and human ecology, coupled with computational and methodological innovations, is amplifying the power of models to inform the public health response to emergence events. Tighter integration of infectious disease models with public health practice and development of resources at the ready has the potential to increase the timeliness and quality of responses.
- Date of publication
- 2017
- Keyword
- virus infection
- public health service
- mathematical model
- pandemic
- animal
- Animals
- virology
- theoretical model
- public health
- virus
- virus transmission
- drug resistance
- priority journal
- human
- data assimilation
- Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus
- epidemic
- pathogen
- Middle East respiratory syndrome
- innovation
- Zika fever
- Influenza A virus (H1N1)
- Communicable Diseases, Emerging
- Models, Theoretical
- Public Health Practice
- forecasting
- Zika virus
- infectious disease
- Review
- nonhuman
- communicable disease
- Humans
- disease model
- numerical model
- Ebola hemorrhagic fever
- Ebolavirus
- DOI
- Identifier
- Resource type
- Article
- Journal title
- Science
- Journal volume
- 357
- Journal issue
- 6347
- Page start
- 149
- Page end
- 152
- Language
- English
- Version
- Postprint
- Funder
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, NICHD: P2CHD047879
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