Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world

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Creator
  • Toor, J
    • Other Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
  • Echeverria-Londono, S.
    • Other Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
  • Li, X
    • Other Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
  • Abbas, K
    • Other Affiliation: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  • Carter, E.D
    • Other Affiliation: Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
  • Clapham, H.E
    • Other Affiliation: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore
  • Clark, A
    • Other Affiliation: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  • de Villiers, M.J
    • Other Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
  • Eilertson, K
    • Other Affiliation: Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States
  • Ferrari, M
    • Other Affiliation: Pennsylvania State University, State College, United States
  • Gamkrelidze, I
    • Other Affiliation: Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, United States
  • Hallett, T.B
    • Other Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
  • Hinsley, W.R
    • Other Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
  • Hogan, D
    • Other Affiliation: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Geneva, Switzerland
  • Huber, J.H
    • Other Affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States
  • Jackson, M.L
    • Other Affiliation: Kaiser Permanente Washington, Seattle, United States
  • Jean, K
    • Other Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
  • Jit, M
    • Other Affiliation: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  • Karachaliou, A
    • Other Affiliation: University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
  • Klepac, P
    • Other Affiliation: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  • Kraay, A
    • Other Affiliation: Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, United States
  • Lessler, J
    • Gillings School of Global Public Health, Department of Epidemiology
    • Other Affiliation: Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
  • Li, X
  • Lopman, B.A
    • Other Affiliation: Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, United States
  • Mengistu, T
    • Other Affiliation: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Geneva, Switzerland
  • Metcalf, C.J.E
    • Other Affiliation: Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
  • Moore, S.M
    • Other Affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States
  • Nayagam, S
    • Other Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
  • Papadopoulos, T
    • Other Affiliation: Public Health England, London, United Kingdom, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
  • Perkins, T.A
    • Other Affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States
  • Portnoy, A
    • Other Affiliation: Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, United States
  • Razavi, H
    • Other Affiliation: Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, United States
  • Razavi-Shearer, D
    • Other Affiliation: Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, United States
  • Resch, S
    • Other Affiliation: Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, United States
  • Sanderson, C
    • Other Affiliation: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  • Sweet, S
    • Other Affiliation: Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, United States
  • Tam, Y
    • Other Affiliation: Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
  • Tanvir, H
    • Other Affiliation: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  • Minh, Q.T
    • Other Affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States
  • Trotter, C.L
    • Other Affiliation: University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
  • Truelove, S.A.
    • Other Affiliation: Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
  • Vynnycky, E
    • Other Affiliation: Public Health England, London, United Kingdom
  • Walker, N
    • Other Affiliation: Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
  • Winter, A
    • Other Affiliation: Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
  • Woodruff, K
    • Other Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
  • Ferguson, N.M
    • Other Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
  • Gaythorpe, K.A.M
    • Other Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abstract
  • Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.
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Identifier
Resource type
  • Article
License
  • Attribution 4.0 International
Journal title
  • eLife
Journal volume
  • 10
Language
  • English
Version
  • Publisher
Funder
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, BMGF
  • National Institute of General Medical Sciences, NIGMS: R01GM124280
  • National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIAID: R01AI112970
ISSN
  • 2050-084X
Publisher
  • eLife Sciences Publications Ltd

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