Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

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  • Entwisle, Barbara
    • Affiliation: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
    • Other Affiliation: Carolina Population Center
  • Williams, Nathalie E.
    • Other Affiliation: Jackson School of International Studies; University of Washington
  • Verdery, Ashton M.
    • Other Affiliation: Department of Sociology and Criminology; Pennsylvania State University
  • Rindfuss, Ronald R.
    • Affiliation: Carolina Population Center
    • Other Affiliation: Department of Sociology
  • Walsh, Stephen J.
    • Affiliation: Carolina Population Center
    • Other Affiliation: Department of Geography
  • Malanson, George P.
    • Other Affiliation: Department of Geography; University of Iowa
  • Mucha, Peter J.
    • Affiliation: College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Mathematics
  • Frizzelle, Brian G.
    • Affiliation: Carolina Population Center
  • McDaniel, Philip M.
    • Affiliation: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. University Libraries
  • Yao, Xiaozheng
    • Other Affiliation: Virginia Tech University
  • Heumann, Benjamin W.
    • Other Affiliation: Department of Geography; Center for Geographic Information Science; Central Michigan University
  • Prasartkul, Pramote
    • Other Affiliation: Institute for Population and Social Research; Mahidol University
  • Sawangdee, Yothin
    • Other Affiliation: Institute for Population and Social Research; Mahidol University
  • Jampaklay, Aree
    • Other Affiliation: Institute for Population and Social Research; Mahidol University
Abstract
  • This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, ‘normal’ scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.
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Resource type
  • Article
Rights statement
  • In Copyright
Journal title
  • Population and Environment
Journal volume
  • 38
Journal issue
  • 1
Page start
  • 47
Page end
  • 71
Language
  • English
ISSN
  • 0199-0039
  • 1573-7810

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