Application of an integrated assessment model with US state-level resolution to study national and regional air pollution control and human health

Public Deposited
Analytics

Downloadable Content

Download PDF
Request Version for Screen Reader
Last Modified
  • March 13, 2020
Creator
  • Ou, Yang
    • Affiliation: Gillings School of Global Public Health, Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering
Abstract
  • Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) significantly contributes to global mortality. Cost-effectively addressing air pollution health risks and global climate change would benefit from strategies that simultaneously consider multiple pollutants and socioeconomic factors such as long-term population and economic growth. This dissertation integrates the health impacts of PM2.5 and its precursors within the Global Change Assessment Model with state-level resolution of the US energy system (GCAM-USA). I first compare the PM2.5 mortality costs (PMMC) and water use impacts of different low-carbon pathways leading to national 50% and 80% CO2 reduction targets in 2050. Renewable-focused pathways (RE) require less water use but avoid less PMMC than pathways focused on nuclear and carbon capture and storage (NUC/CCS), mainly because NUC/CCS result in less primary PM2.5 emissions from residential wood combustion. Next I quantify contributions of socioeconomic and energy factors to future PMMC under current policy for each US state. National PMMC are estimated to decrease 25% from 2015 to 2050, mainly driven by decreases in energy intensity and PMMC per unit consumption of electric sector coal and transportation liquids. Despite a national reduction, states with greater population and economic growth, and more polluting sources face significant challenges in reducing future PMMC from their emissions. Finally, I directly set national PMMC reduction targets within GCAM-USA to identify the most cost-effective control actions, sectors, and locations to reduce future PMMC. Substantial mortality benefits can be cost-effectively achieved by using electricity to replace sources with high primary PM2.5 emission intensities, including industrial coal, building biomass, and industrial liquids. Increasing the stringency of PMMC reduction targets expedites the phaseout of the most polluting sources, leading to larger declines in air pollutant emissions but very limited co-benefits in reducing CO2 emissions. Control strategies reduce emissions most from the East North Central and Middle Atlantic states.
Date of publication
Keyword
DOI
Resource type
Advisor
  • West, James J
  • Loughlin, Daniel H
  • Nolte, Christopher G
  • Characklis, Gregory W
  • MacDonald Gibson, Jacqueline
Degree
  • Doctor of Philosophy
Degree granting institution
  • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Graduate School
Graduation year
  • 2019
Language

Relations

Parents:

This work has no parents.

In Collection:

Items

Thumbnail Title Date Uploaded Visibility Actions
file details Ou_unc_0153D_19001.pdf 2020-02-10 Public Download