THE HUMAN HEALTH IMPACTS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN AIR QUALITY AND TEMPERATURE IN THE UNITED STATES

THE HUMAN HEALTH IMPACTS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN AIR QUALITY AND TEMPERATURE IN THE UNITED STATES Public Deposited

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Becker, Douglas
- Affiliation: Gillings School of Global Public Health, Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering

Abstract

Human emissions influence ozone concentrations, PM2.5 concentrations, and temperature levels, which are known to increase morbidity and mortality. Here we use the BenMap program to estimate the health impacts of modeled changes in air quality and temperature in the continental United States in 2025 relative to 2005. In a simulation containing changes in both anthropogenic emissions and meteorology, we estimate that ozone-related respiratory mortality decreases by 2,400 (90% CI 1,100-3,700) annually and all-cause mortality associated with PM2.5 decreases by 26,000 (90% CI 19,000-32,000). In this same simulation, heat-related cardiovascular mortality increases by 31,000 (90% CI 18,000-44,000). Additionally, we find substantial decreases across all morbidity endpoints and significant geographical variation throughout all endpoints. Finally, the economic costs of these health impacts are estimated at $48 billion per year. Our results suggest that emissions control schemes may provide substantial human health benefits, and mitigation and adaptation measures against heat-related impacts are needed.

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