The implications of educational aspiration-expectation mismatch for subsequent educational attainment outcomes

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Foster, Bruce O'Brian
- Affiliation: College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Sociology

Abstract

Adolescents express multiple, sometimes conflicting school-related beliefs, including educational aspirations and expectations that do not align. Although the independent effects of aspirations and expectations on academic outcomes are robust and widely documented, it is unclear how consequential these beliefs may be when they are discordant. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, I find that adolescents who express aspirations that do not align with their expectations attain fewer years of education than their counterparts who do not. In addition, a notable proportion of adolescents express aspirations that are lower than their expectations. Findings from this study offer new insights regarding how adolescents process mixed interpersonal and institutional messages about their academic potential, and at what cost.

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