Security first: the response of the Iraqi population to counterinsurgency strategy Public Deposited

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  • March 21, 2019
  • Uthlaut, David A.
    • Affiliation: College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Sociology
  • Given the U.S. military's current engagement with insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is possible and prudent to test the effectiveness of U.S. counterinsurgency doctrine in practice. This article tests the predictive power of access to essential services, unemployment, perceptions of improved security, insurgent attacks, and demographic characteristics upon Iraqi citizens' confidence in the counterinsurgent forces and the Iraqi insurgency. It also tests the predictive power of confidence in the various counterinsurgent and insurgent forces, as well as the aforementioned variables, upon future attacks. In the first test, survey respondents' perceptions of improved security and their ethno-sectarian community are the most consistent predictors of confidence in counterinsurgent and insurgent forces, while the rest are inconsistent or insignificant predictors. In the second test, survey responses from a specific district were insufficient to consistently predict future attacks in that same district.
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  • In Copyright
  • "... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in the Department of Sociology."
  • Kurzman, Charles
Degree granting institution
  • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Place of publication
  • Chapel Hill, NC
  • Open access

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