The Long-Term Consequences of Immigration Politics

The Long-Term Consequences of Immigration Politics Public Deposited

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Creator

Monogan, James E.
- Affiliation: College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Political Science

Abstract

This dissertation studies the politics of immigration in the United States over the past two decades and presents three findings. First, it expands upon formal research on elections by considering competition in a dynamic environment of multiple elections. It shows that political parties generally will take an issue position closer to present electoral ideology, but they will move towards a position that may win in the future the more highly they value winning in the future and the less uncertain they are about election outcomes. Second, it asks what shaped immigration policy in the fifty states between 2005 and 2008 and shows that policy is affected primarily by electoral ideology, but also by legislative professionalism and state wealth. Surprisingly, party control of state offices has no effect on immigration policy beyond the consequences of ideology. Third, the dissertation demonstrates how the party identification of various demographic groups in California, Texas, and the United States as a whole moved after the gubernatorial campaigns of Pete Wilson and George W. Bush. Change point analyses of these data indicate that Wilson harmed the Republican coalition in California and the nation, while Bush helped the Texas Republican party. Further, Bush's presidency undid much of the harm Wilson brought on the Republican party among Hispanics.

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