Hospital Surge Capacity for an Influenza Pandemic in the Triangle Region of North Carolina

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Woodul, Rachel
- Affiliation: College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Geography

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This research examines the ability of the hospital system in the Triangle region of North Carolina to respond to an increased demand for care during a large-scale influenza pandemic. Statistical and spatial modeling are used to simulate an event similar to the 1918 pandemic. The infected population of the Triangle region are allocated to the nearest hospital based on distance, given there remains available treatment space, until system surge capacity is reached. Clinical case rates from the 1918 influenza pandemic were used to simulate an influenza pandemic in the 2010 population of the Triangle, and standard operating parameters and surge capacity values for each hospital in the study have been incorporated into the model to accurately represent the ability of each hospital to provide care. A capacitated allocation model was developed to allocate infected individuals to hospitals. This model incorporates both hospital capacity and geographic access to facilities, allowing for visualization of both geographic access to facilities and the potential to realize access at, or utilize, facilities once they have been accessed. By differentiating between access and utilization, this research seeks to understand both the potential surge in demand for care during an influenza pandemic, as well as the capacity of existing facilities to respond to such a surge.

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